The environmental protection and strong winds such as the heating season limit production have caused the steel, chemical, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other industries to be severely tortured. The industry believes that the steel market will be a turmoil at the end of the year, and prices may continue to push up. The peak production of cement may lead to a negative growth in production in 2017, while the chemical industry is in a polarized situation. The number of scattered small chemical plants and small-scale products enterprises will be the focus of environmental supervision, and these enterprises will be eliminated. In the long run, it is good for the whole industry.
Since the 18th National Congress, the reform of the ecological civilization system has been placed in a prominent position in comprehensively deepening the reform work. In September 2015, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the “Overall Plan for the Reform of Ecological Civilization System”, and the design of the top-level system in the form of “1+N” began. Since then, the Central Deep Reform Group has reviewed and approved a series of supporting policy documents related to the reform of ecological civilization. Since the beginning of this year, environmental protection related policies such as the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Area Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan 2017” have been intensively introduced. At the same time, the central environmental protection supervision has achieved full coverage of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and has promoted a large number of outstanding environmental problems. .
Under this, the place has also moved. Hebei Province, a major steel province, proposed that Baoding, Langfang and Zhangjiakou will create a “no steel market”, and Zhangjiakou basically realized “no-mine market”. Zhangjiakou, Langfang, Baoding and Hengshui strive to achieve “no-focus city”. “A number of environmental protection policies are superimposed, and there are few steels left in the production enterprises.” Jin Yi, the editor-in-chief of the metal industry, Yi Yi told the “Economic Information Daily” reporter.
However, environmentally friendly strong winds are still behind. According to the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas 2017 air pollution prevention and control work program", "2+26" urban industrial enterprises will have peak production during the heating season. The cement and foundry industries are all in peak production. Except for the tasks of people's livelihood, all the peak production during the heating season. From September 15th, the Ministry of Environmental Protection launched an atmospheric inspection of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas in autumn and winter. This inspection is aimed at enterprises and governments involved in the air pollution control of the “2+26” city in autumn and winter.
Yi Yi believes that the steel market will be another turmoil at the end of the year, and the price may continue to push up. Taking the rebar price as an example, there will still be an upside of 200-300 yuan/ton in the later period. But you need to be cautious to chase.
According to Jiang Chao, an analyst at Haitong Securities, 28 cities accounted for 1/5 of the country's output in 2016, while national cement production in the first seven months of 2017 increased by only 0.3% year-on-year. Therefore, peak production may lead to negative growth in 2017.
From the perspective of the chemical industry, Wang Yuxian, editor-in-chief of Jinlian Energy and Chemical Industry, said that at present, China's chemical companies are in a polarized situation. The main bulk chemical production is concentrated in the hands of large-scale private enterprises such as three barrels of oil and refining. The supporting environmental protection measures of these enterprises are generally relatively perfect. Due to the impact on the local economy and social impact, the impact of environmental supervision is limited. On the other hand, there are a large number of scattered small chemical plants and small-scale products enterprises, and there is a long-term lack of supervision. This part of enterprises will be the focus of environmental supervision. Environmental supervision has been positive for chemical companies for a long time, and the policy threshold can eliminate some of the less efficient small enterprises.
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